Was the oil crises of 1999-2000 different from all others?"
Annual review authored and distributed by Prof. Eliyahu Kanovsky, Bar-Ilan
University, internationally respected authority on the economics of Middle
East countries recently published his current findings [21 March 2002].
There is no shortage of oil on the horizon and long term
prices (in dollars) will be approximately stable or with a slight downward
trend. (presumes absence of wars or similar political upheavals).
None of the Gulf oil states have succeeded in diversifying
their economies away from oil; all are trapped into consuming up to 90% of
About 150,000 young Saudis enter the work force each year . Some 50,000 find
work. Employers prefer Asian workers.
In Saudi Arabia extravagance, corruption, and the privileges of a royal family
that numbers 30,000, have lead to a national debt of $160 billion, approximating
GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Per capita GDP has fallen to one fourth of
its 1980 peak.
World oil output is rising. Russia's output is rising.
"It is my view that the long run trend of oil prices is downward
(inflation-corrected dollars). Barring exogenous oil shocks (wars, revolutions
etc.) there is good reason to anticipate ...the long term downtrend in oil